The classic alt-season map goes BTC first, then large-cap alts, then mid-caps, then the degenerate long tail. It’s a decent mental model because it describes how risk appetite spreads: money doesn’t teleport to the riskiest thing, it walks there one rung at a time as confidence builds.
The problem is treating a rough pattern like a train schedule. Rotations skip stops, reverse without warning, and sometimes never reach the far end of the curve before the whole thing rolls over. Getting the sequence right and the timing wrong still loses money.
The useful takeaway is about where you are on the risk curve, not about calling exact handoffs. Late in a rotation you’re being paid less to take more risk, precisely when it feels safest. That asymmetry is the tell. The crowd’s comfort is usually the top’s best marketing.
Not financial advice.
